The hidden value of attending the Rating Agency Briefings at Monte Carlo

High value reinsurance industry updates from the Rating Agencies at their Monte Carlo presentations 

The Litmus team will be in Monte Carlo again this year (get in touch if you’d like to catch up). The Sunday is an important day for us as three major rating agencies hold their update briefings.

These events are not just valuable for those focused on ratings. Market participants may be surprised at the extent and nature of reinsurance industry insight that shapes the agencies’ Monte Carlo presentations and their related reporting. This insight reflects an often overlooked reality: legally, in conducting ratings the agencies are ‘insiders’. Hence, they are privy to a unique degree of non-public information across the industry. Of necessity reinsurers disclose and discuss a lot of information that is market sensitive and/or commercially confidential with them.

This would typically include the reinsurers’ forecasts and the detail behind them (gross and net), capital management goals, growth and RoE targets, and strategic plans. The reinsurers will also reveal their views on price adequacy, expected reserve development and ultimate loss ratio forecasts, plus their outwards protection buying goals and what drives those.

Of course, the agencies cannot disclose anything not in the public domain on any given reinsurer. However, their underlying research and assumptions are informed by all that they hear, and, for the agencies that rate all significant reinsurers, they are hearing that information from everybody. Every year.

The Monte Carlo presentations and related research will reflect core elements of this (including their knowledge of rated cedants’ appetite for reinsurance capacity).

For example, the agencies will often show highly informative graphs on capital adequacy and earnings aggregated across an industry-wide cohort or sub-cohorts. Three of the main four agencies (A.M. Best, Fitch and S&P) have their own capital models that they aggregate for cohort level analysis. These reflect a wealth of non-public information. Similarly, their cohort level analysis of earnings data (including forecasts) will reflect the insight they have from their dialogue with the rated reinsurers: including logical adjustments to published earnings data.

Summary of the details of this year’s Monte Carlo agency events

Sunday 8th September

08.45 – 10.00 CEST – Fitch’s Global Reinsurance Outlook 2025: From Peaks to (High) Plateaus

Hermitage Hotel

Link to register: Fitch

• Is the cycle turning?

• Margins, Capital Strength, Reserve adequacy

• Downside risks: what to watch in 2025

• Decoding the Tight Credit Spreads in European Reinsurance – Any Juice Left?

• Bond Issuance Prospects for European Reinsurers

10.15 – 11.45 CEST – AM Best’s Reinsurance Market Briefing

Hotel Hermitage (Salle Eiffel II – d’etage moins 4)

Link to register: AMBest

• AM Best’s trend analysis on the global reinsurance sector

• Will pricing discipline be maintained

• Global reinsurance outlook and the drivers of future rating movements

• Impact of alternative capital and ILS

• Key rating issues impacting all reinsurers.

11.15 – 12.15 CEST (Briefing commences 11.30) – S&P Reinsurance Briefing

Fairmont Hotel (Grand Prix B room)

Link to register: S&P

• Senior analysts present their review and outlook for the sector

We hope to see you there!